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Posts Tagged ‘world series odds’

Unlike Rose, we can bet on baseball

 We’ve reached the All-Star break, giving some a chance to take a deep breath from the long season and others to experience withdrawal pangs without “real” baseball for the next 3 days. I could write glowingly about the Yankees starting rotation or rip Joba and the rest of his bullpen mates sans Mariano, but I’ll have plenty of time to do that throughout the 2nd half of the season. Today, I want to discuss something a little different…examining the World Series odds. I’ll probe where the Yankees and the rest of the teams are projected to finish and provide some dark horse candidates to win the championship. Below, all teams currently in the playoffs and/or in contention are listed in groups with their odds to win the World Series in parentheses. (Odds taken from BETUS

The Favorite: Yankees (3:1)
With the best record in baseball and the ability to add pieces to improve the bullpen and bench, the Yankees are clear-cut favorites to repeat. However, because they are such prohibitive favorites, while we all hope they win number 28, the return on the investment won’t reap a big windfall. So put $60 on the Yankees to hedge your bet and place a couple additional wagers on the longer shots below. 

A Cut Below: Rays (6:1), Rangers/Braves (7:1), Red Sox/Cardinals (10:1)
The best bet among these teams is the Rangers. They’ve got the easiest path to the playoffs and they just acquired a dominant #1 starter. The Rays/Red Sox are at least equal and probably better than Texas, but their path to the postseason is much more difficult, so avoid them as well as the Cards, you can find better long shots in the NL. 

The Darkhorses: Phillies (12:1), Mets (14:1), Reds (18:1), White Sox/Twins (20:1)
Two teams stand out from this group…the Phillies and Reds. Phi at 12:1 is a good price if you think they’ll get healthy enough to make the playoffs and be close to full strength (if they were healthy I’d guess they’d be ~6:1). But at 18:1, I “love” the Reds. They have a well-balanced pitching staff as well as an excellent lineup (of course they also have Dusty at the controls to potentially botch things up). But at these odds, they’re a sneaky/solid play. So pluck down $60 on Cincinnati and if they win you’ll be collecting $1,080 in October. 

The Longshots: Tigers/Rockies/Dodgers/Padres (25:1), Giants (30:1), Angels (40:1)
Forget the Tigers, Dodgers and Angels. Padres are dangerous, but their bullpen is already showing signs of regression and the underrated ace of the staff, Mat Latos, has innings limit concerns (Yes, Yankees fans we aren’t the only team that caps innings for starters). The Rockies have withstood several injuries and find themselves just 2 games back of the front running Padres and the Giants find themselves only 4 GB. The Giants lineup at one point this season was putrid, but with the surprising production of Torres and the explosive bat of Buster Posey this team may finally have the hitting to support an excellent pitching staff. So put $60 on either the Rockies or Giants and if you’re feeling frisky bet both. Without a clear favorite in the NL these teams can make it to the World Series and anything can happen once they get there…and in this case that “anything” can yield $1500-$1800. 

So who do you think will win the World Series? Who is your sleeper/long shot pick to win it all? 

Follow me on twitter @eddieperez23

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