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Posts Tagged ‘San Francisco Giants’

Alex Rodriguez

Alex Rodriguez

Yankees (81-73) vs. Giants (71-83)

Pitching Matchup:

RHP Ivan Nova (8-5, 3.36) vs RHP Ryan Vogelsong (3-5, 5.73)

Yankees Lineup

Suzuki RF
Rodriguez DH
Cano 2B
Soriano LF
Granderson CF
Nunez 3B
Reynolds 1B
Ryan SS
Stewart C

Game Information:

The game will take place at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York. It is scheduled to start at 1:05PM ET. The game will be televised on the YES Network. The game can be heard on the radio on WCBS 880.

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The Yankees open up a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants tonight. Here are the pitching probables for the series:

Fri: LHP CC Sabathia (13-13, 4.90) vs RHP Tim Lincecum (10-13, 4.40)

Sat: RHP Ivan Nova (8-5, 3.36) vs RHP Ryan Vogelsong (3-5, 5.73)

Sun: LHP Andy Pettitte (10-10, 3.93) vs RHP Yusmeiro Petit (4-0, 3.08)

Andy Pettitte

Andy Pettitte

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Time is running out for the 2013 New York Yankees. They’re riding a 4-game losing streak (L10, 4-6) and stand 3.5GB of the AL Wild Card. Here is the remaining schedule:

September 2013

9/18: @Toronto Blue Jays 7:07PM ET

9/19: @ Toronto Blue Jays 7:07PM ET

9/20: San Francisco Giants 7:05PM ET

9/21: San Francisco Giants 1:05PM ET

9/22: San Francisco Giants 1:05PM ET

9/23: Off day

9/24: Tampa Bay Rays 7:05PM ET

9/25: Tampa Bay Rays 7:05PM ET

9/26: Tampa Bay Rays 7:05PM ET

9/27: @ Houston Astros 8:10PM ET

9/28: @ Houston Astros 7:10PM ET

9/29: @ Houston Astros 2:10PM ET

Mariano Rivera

Mariano Rivera

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Ubaldo Jimenez

Some things are a given in life. The sun rises in the east. Commuter trains in New York are overstuffed and never run on time. The Yankees always make a trade in July.

Only, this year that last one might not happen.

It’s not for lack of need. The starting line-up is solid and the bench features guys who could start for better than half the teams in baseball. But the pitching staff, both in the rotation and the bullpen, is loaded with question marks. CC Sabathia is an unqualified ace; Mariano Rivera remains the king of closers and David Robertson has turned into one of the game’s most reliable set-up men. But the rest of the staff doesn’t inspire confidence on a daily basis.

The Yankees are plagued by the fact that among the presumed LCS teams, they’re the only team without a bona-fide number 2 starter. The Red Sox feature Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. The Phillies send Roy Halladay
and Cliff Lee. The Giants have Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. The Yankees keep hoping that AJ Burnett will be that number two guy – but after 2 ½ seasons of watching him implode at the most inopportune times, I can’t think of anyone who truly thinks he is. Bartolo Colon, based on his performance this year (7-6, 3.29 ERA, 8K/9) is probably the current #2, but he’s already thrown more innings than over the past 4 seasons combined and you have to worry about how much longer he can continue. Freddy Garcia keeps pulling magic acts on the mound, but his xFIP is nearly a half-run higher than his ERA; you get the feeling that sooner or later his luck is going to run out. Phil Hughes exploded on the scene in the first half of 2010, but since then he’s been less than a pedestrian pitcher (7-7, 5.76 ERA). Ivan Nova was sent back the minors earlier and despite showing signs of improvement when he was with the big club, he is nowhere near being a number two starter.

Likewise, the bullpen has a few holes. Rafael Soriano was brought in to be the primary set-up man, but he’s spent most of the season on the DL and was largely ineffective before getting hurt. Boone Logan is the supposed lefty specialist, but left handers are tuning him up to a 138 OPS+. While Cory Wade and Luis Ayala have been reasonably pleasant surprises, neither has experienced this level of success before. And heaven help us all if the abysmal Sergio Mitre is reactivated and added to the post-season roster.

So, like I said, the Yankees certainly have needs. The problem is there doesn’t seem to be anyone available in the trade market that can fill those needs. There’s been a lot of discussion regarding Ubaldo Jimenez, but the Rockies
asking price (3 or 4 of the Yanks blue chip prospects) is insane. Jimenez had a terrific first half of 2010. Otherwise, he’s a sub-.500 pitcher with a career ERA of 3.87 – while pitching in the offensively challenged NL West. If Brian Cashman adds him at tomorrow’s deadline, I’ll be underwhelmed. The other starters rumored to be on the market also aren’t overly impressive. They range from the oft-injured Erik Bedard to the recalcitrant Hiroki Kuroda
to baseball’s version of a spoiled two-year old, Carlos Zambrano. In short, barring some sort of unexpected blockbuster, there simply isn’t anyone available who provides an upgrade over what the Yanks currently have on hand.

In terms of bullpen help, the Yanks are certainly looking for a left hander – but good luck finding anyone. The Orioles probably want to rid themselves of Mike Gonzales and his bloated contract, but he has had zero success in the AL. The A’s might be willing to part with Brian Fuentes, but I can’t imagine the Yankees assuming around $8.5 million in contract for a guy who has actually been worse against lefties than Logan. The only other name I’ve seen available is the Cubs John Grabow. Like Fuentes and Gonzales, he’s been more piñata than pitcher.

So, there you have it. Unlike past deadlines, this one is looking pretty quiet for the Yankee front office.

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Part 1 of 2


The principle topic of discussion in Yankeeland for the past week has been, how much should Derek Jeter make on his next contract? The debate has raged on since Sunday, when details began leaking of the Yankees $45 million, 3 year offer and Casey Close’s “bafflement.” Yesterday, I saw a bunch of tweets about Jeter asking for 6 years and $150 million. I don’t know where those rumors started, but I also saw a bunch from Close stating those figures were “rubbish.” I’m also hearing that the $15 million average salary offered to Jeter represents a number perhaps twice his true market value, which sounds like so much rubbish to me. But before I start tossing around opinions, I thought I would do a little research into the matter.

The central questions to all of this tug-and-pull remains what, exactly, is Jeter’s worth to the open market and what is his worth to the Yankees? I think pretty much everyone with a little common sense understands that Jeter is for more valuable to the Yankees than to any other team and for the Yankees to pay him based strictly on what he is worth to, say, the Giants is ridiculous. And Jeter would be just as ridiculous to expect the same type of money from the Giants as he would from the Yankees. Harvey Araton of the NY Times has a good article today in which none other than Brian Cashman compares Jeter to Lou Gehrig. Like Gehrig, Jeter is a for more valuable commodity to the Yankees than to any other team.

So what is Jeter’s worth?

To start, I looked at what a typical major league team pays for players of Jeter’s caliber. By using WAR, we can determine how much a player is paid based on how many wins he is better than a typical replacement:

2011

2011

Rk Player

WAR

Salary

$/WAR

1 Albert Pujols

42.6

$ 16,000,000.00 $ 1,877,934.27
2 Joe Mauer

33.8

$ 23,000,000.00 $ 3,402,366.86
3 Chase Utley

30.8

$ 15,000,000.00 $ 2,435,064.94
4 Hanley Ramirez

29.1

$ 11,000,000.00 $ 1,890,034.36
5 Alex Rodriguez

26.3

$ 31,000,000.00 $ 5,893,536.12
6 Mark Teixeira

26.2

$ 22,500,000.00 $ 4,293,893.13
7 Miguel Cabrera

24.9

$ 20,000,000.00 $ 4,016,064.26
8 David Wright

24.8

$ 14,000,000.00 $ 2,822,580.65
9 Chipper Jones

24.1

$ 13,000,000.00 $ 2,697,095.44
10 Kevin Youkilis

23.2

$ 12,000,000.00 $ 2,586,206.90
11 Adrian Gonzalez

22.9

$ 5,500,000.00 $ 1,200,873.36
12 Robinson Cano

22.1

$ 10,000,000.00 $ 2,262,443.44
13 Derek Jeter

21.4

$ –
14 Justin Morneau

19.8

$ 14,000,000.00 $ 3,535,353.54
15 Jose Reyes

19.4

$ 11,000,000.00 $ 2,835,051.55
ML Average –> $ 2,945,945.95

First up, Derek Jeter is the 13th most productive player in all of MLB since 2006. I think that lost in all of the acrimony and discussion of how bad Jeter was last year is that simple fact – only 12 players in MLB have been more productive than Derek Jeter. That’s pretty amazing, if you consider that more than 600 individuals have donned a major league uniform over that time. (I went back 5 seasons, so as to get a representative sample). You’ll also notice that even with some horrendously underpaid performers (Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez) in the top 15, the average compensation per win in 2011 is nearly $3 million. Using that figure as a yardstick, fair compensation for Jeter – based solely on performance – would be his WAR dollar value of $12,608,648.65. If you were to pay him based on WAR dollar value of players at similar ages/careers, then the number drops slightly to $12,096,338.26 – or, to put it another way, teams realize players of Jeter’s age probably won’t continue to produce like they did when they were 30 and the average “age discount” is roughly $510,000. Also, you can see that there are four Yankees in the top fifteen: besides Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano. Their average compensation per win in 2011 is $4,149,976.76 – if Jeter were paid on the Yankee scale, then his value would be $17,761,818.37.

All of a sudden, that $15 million figure offered by Cashman doesn’t represent a number that far from Jeter’s value based on performance. Best case for Cashman, they’re offering Jeter a $3 million bonus. Worst case, the offer represents shortchanging Jeter by about $2.5 million. Based strictly on performance, the two sides probably could come to a pretty quick accommodation. But the principle sticking point in this negotiation is that Jeter is worth far more to the Yankees than to any of the other 31 teams in baseball. Jeter knows it. Cashman knows it. The obvious problem is coming to an agreement on just how much value Jeter represents to the Yankees vs. other teams. Or, to put it in Cashman’s own words, how much this century’s Gehrig is worth to the Yankees.

There really isn’t any way to statistically analyze that number. Since the Yankees are not a public corporation, we don’t have access to their financials, nor do we have access for their revenue projections for the next 5 years. But we can make an educated guess.

And I’ll discuss that tomorrow.

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Unlike Rose, we can bet on baseball

 We’ve reached the All-Star break, giving some a chance to take a deep breath from the long season and others to experience withdrawal pangs without “real” baseball for the next 3 days. I could write glowingly about the Yankees starting rotation or rip Joba and the rest of his bullpen mates sans Mariano, but I’ll have plenty of time to do that throughout the 2nd half of the season. Today, I want to discuss something a little different…examining the World Series odds. I’ll probe where the Yankees and the rest of the teams are projected to finish and provide some dark horse candidates to win the championship. Below, all teams currently in the playoffs and/or in contention are listed in groups with their odds to win the World Series in parentheses. (Odds taken from BETUS

The Favorite: Yankees (3:1)
With the best record in baseball and the ability to add pieces to improve the bullpen and bench, the Yankees are clear-cut favorites to repeat. However, because they are such prohibitive favorites, while we all hope they win number 28, the return on the investment won’t reap a big windfall. So put $60 on the Yankees to hedge your bet and place a couple additional wagers on the longer shots below. 

A Cut Below: Rays (6:1), Rangers/Braves (7:1), Red Sox/Cardinals (10:1)
The best bet among these teams is the Rangers. They’ve got the easiest path to the playoffs and they just acquired a dominant #1 starter. The Rays/Red Sox are at least equal and probably better than Texas, but their path to the postseason is much more difficult, so avoid them as well as the Cards, you can find better long shots in the NL. 

The Darkhorses: Phillies (12:1), Mets (14:1), Reds (18:1), White Sox/Twins (20:1)
Two teams stand out from this group…the Phillies and Reds. Phi at 12:1 is a good price if you think they’ll get healthy enough to make the playoffs and be close to full strength (if they were healthy I’d guess they’d be ~6:1). But at 18:1, I “love” the Reds. They have a well-balanced pitching staff as well as an excellent lineup (of course they also have Dusty at the controls to potentially botch things up). But at these odds, they’re a sneaky/solid play. So pluck down $60 on Cincinnati and if they win you’ll be collecting $1,080 in October. 

The Longshots: Tigers/Rockies/Dodgers/Padres (25:1), Giants (30:1), Angels (40:1)
Forget the Tigers, Dodgers and Angels. Padres are dangerous, but their bullpen is already showing signs of regression and the underrated ace of the staff, Mat Latos, has innings limit concerns (Yes, Yankees fans we aren’t the only team that caps innings for starters). The Rockies have withstood several injuries and find themselves just 2 games back of the front running Padres and the Giants find themselves only 4 GB. The Giants lineup at one point this season was putrid, but with the surprising production of Torres and the explosive bat of Buster Posey this team may finally have the hitting to support an excellent pitching staff. So put $60 on either the Rockies or Giants and if you’re feeling frisky bet both. Without a clear favorite in the NL these teams can make it to the World Series and anything can happen once they get there…and in this case that “anything” can yield $1500-$1800. 

So who do you think will win the World Series? Who is your sleeper/long shot pick to win it all? 

Follow me on twitter @eddieperez23

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post finds that Johnny Damon returning to the Bronx is unlikely, because the Yankees  are telling agents they have only $2M to spend.  Cashman would have to lobby Hal Steinbrenner to expand the budget to bring back Damon. Supposedly, when they were targeting Mike Cameron back in July, Hal Steinbrenner would not approve a $5.5MM increase. Damon would have to cut his salary demands by a lot, and that is unlikely. If this report is correct, $2M isn’t going to get you anything noteworthy on this FA market.

If they move on from Damon, the team’s next targets are: Xavier Nady, Reed Johnson, Rocco Baldelli, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Marcus Thames.

According to Chris Haft of MLB.com, the “signing of first baseman Aubrey Huff likely finishes the Giants’ offseason efforts to upgrade the ballclub.” So, that means no Damon for the Giants? Isn’t this guy running out of options?

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It has been a busy few days at the Winter Meetings, so let’s take a minute to take a break before the meetings end today.

Sports Illustrated recently released it’s list of Top 10 MLB games of the 2000’s. Without further gilding the lilly, here they are:

10. 2001 – ALDS, Game 3. This game is known for ‘The Flip’ by Jeter. Yankees 1, A’s 0

9. 2003 – ALCS, Game 6. This game is ‘The Bartman Game’. I wonder if the Cubs made it to the World Series if the Yankees would have still lost the World Series. Marlins 8, Cubs 3

8. 2007 – NL Wild Card Tie. This game was one hell of a game as the Rockies would shock the world and advance to the World Series. Rockies 9, Padres 8 (13 innings)

7. 2009  – AL Central Tiebreaker. One has to wonder if this game took too much out of the Twins to put up a fight against the Yankees. Twins 6, Tigers 5 (12 innings)

6. 2006 – NLCS Game 7. This game had a pitching duel between Jeff Suppan and Oliver Perez, weird, I know. Cardinals 3, Mets 1

5. 2002 – World Series Game 6. Think Dusty Baker and Robb Nenn want a do over? Angels 6, Giants 5

4. 2004 – ALCS Game 5. 2004…..Funny, all my memories from that year are missing… Red Sox 5, Yankees 4 (14 innings)

3. 2001 – World Series Games 4 and 5. Mystique and Aura were certainly not dancing in a strip club these nights… Yankees 4, Diamondbacks 3 and Yankees 3, Diamondbacks 2

2. 2003 – ALCS Game 7. The greatest moment in the professional career for Aaron Boone and probably the worst for Grady Little. Yankees 6, Red Sox 5 (11 innings)

1. 2001 – World Series Game 7. I passed out before this game was over for some unknown reason, but when I woke up and heard on the radio that the Yankees lost in the bottom of the ninth, I was nearly brought to tears. Diamondbacks 3, Yankees 2

So what do you think? I think the only thing I’d really change is switch number 2 and 3. You?

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