I realize there’s still a lot of work to do before we wrap 2010, but it’s never too early to think about next year. After all, the Yankees as a team are about one thing, and one thing only: winning World Championships. That means this year, next year and all the years after.
Without a doubt, one of the big questions going into next season will be the starting rotation. What began this year as a pillar of strength has eroded, as injuries to Andy Pettite and sub-par performances from AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez have left gaping holes in the rotation. Let’s face it, there have been times in the second half where it seems the starters were playing CC Sabathia and the Seven Dwarfs. Taking a look into the crystal ball, here’s what I see for next year’s starting five:
Let’s break them down.
CC Sabathia: CC has been the quintessential ace for the Yankees this year. Forget the numbers; what he’s provided the Yankee braintrust (and us fans, too) is stability. In a season when every game begins with everyone wondering of the starting pitcher will survive the 5th inning, CC has gone out there every 5 days and given the team 7 or more quality innings. He has been worth every penny of his contract. Yes, CC will be a year older and you have to wonder when all the innings over the past five seasons will begin to take a toll on his very broad shoulders, but for now CC is the undisputed Bronx Ace.
Phil Hughes: Phil-thy has blossomed into the top of the rotation stud the Yankees envisioned when they picked him in the first round in 2004. Although he’s struggled some in the second half, he’s also pitching more often than at any time in his career. With his effort this season, he’s earned the right to be considered the #2 started for 2011.
Cliff Lee: I know he’s not a Yankee. Yet. But there can be little doubt that Lee will be the #1 target of the team this off-season. While the Rangers will certainly make a serious push for Lee, I can’t see anyone seriously trying to outbid the Yankees. (I smell something along the lines of a 5 year, $130M contract, with a couple of mutual options thrown in). Lee would be considered the ace on most teams; it says something about this team’s depth that he would start the year as the #3 guy.
Andy Pettite: Andy remains a question mark. Will he want to come back next year? If he does, the Yankees will slot him into the 4 spot. He certainly deserves to come back. The injury that’s kept him sidelined for most of the second half is the kind that happens to older pitchers, but no doubt he’s been extremely effective when on the mound. If not, then the 4 spot goes to…
AJ Burnett: The Yankees answer to the enigma wrapped inside a riddle. He possesses ace stuff, but has yet to demonstrate that he can reliably command any of his pitches . A career .500 pitcher is ok in the 5 spot, though – although the Yankees certainly expect more from their huge investment than a number 5 starter.
There are questions, of course. What if Lee signs elsewhere? What if Pettite doesn’t come back? I think the Yankees can withstand one of those two possibilities, since there are plenty of other options for a fifth starter type. Certainly, the Yankees would consider internal options (Joba Chamberlain) and external (Ted Lilly). But this is my best guess as to how things work out for 2011. As for Vazquez, i fully expect him to be kicked to the curb faster than you can say “85 mph fastball.”
We’ll see if I’m right in March. In the meantime, what does the rest of the Universe think?
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M. B. Rozell
Kevin Rozell
I hope but kinda doubt Pettite comes back next year. But I will welcome him if he does. Vazquez will be gone that’s almost certain unless they decide to keep him as a 5th starter which I’m fine with. I think Nova may have a shot at the rotation. Its early but he has shown a lot of promise. I’d rather we stretch him out and test him versus paying big bucks for an over aged free agent. The caveat to that is if we can get someone on the cheap, a la a Kerry Wood of this season, then yes go for it. I think AJ can turn it around and help us this season and the next couple. Having a bad year so far but I haven’t given up on him.
Agree with pretty much everything you stated, except for one thing. Andy, I have the sinking feeling that if we win this year, it will b his last. As possible replacement for Petite, how about Ivan Nova? That kid has been pitching pretty good and has been our number 3 guy as of late behind Hughes!
I don’t see Hughes being #2 should they sign Lee. Good write-up
@Bill – Hughes isn’t as accomplished as Lee, but putting him between CC & Lee gives opposing teams a different look and doesn’t let them get comfortable. CC & Lee are both lefty fastball/change-up guys. I think that had a lot to do with Lee’s awful 2007. Thanks for the compliment, though – always appreciated!
@Hugo / @Danny: Nova is likely trade-bait. He’s pitched OK since being recalled, but certainly not well enough to assure a place next year. If he isn’t traded, look ofr him to take Chad Gaudin‘s spot in th bullpen, especially if Ace can’t return (back injuries are tricky). I can’t see the Yanks giving him a real shot, not with Betances and Brackman likely pushing for spots in 2012.
Which is why the Yankees will make a serious push to keep Andy around for one more season; basically to give them a secure option until one of those two is ready to make the ML jump. I think Andy will want to, as well – few pro athletes who can still perform at a high level want to call it a career because of an injury.
The way Andy has pitched this year leaves me wanting to see him come back next year. He gained a toughness last year that I don’t think he possessed earlier and that toughness continued this year until the injury. I definitely want to see Andy back next year.
Cliff Lee intriques me. I think he will be a Yankee next year, hopefully we get the lights out pitcher he has been and not someone who shrinks once they put on the pinstripes.
I know we have a lot of work to do this year to get that 28th flag but thinking about next year is pretty interesting.
Good assessment, RR.
I like Lee, but what if his back goes out for good?…
Nova, if he finishes the year out strong should at least get a good look in ST.
Andy may well be back. His main reason for considering retirement has always been his kids. I remember him saying that they are old enough now to want him to stay. And another 5M probably wont hurt, either.
I agree w you on Phil. A little more stamina and he’s a CY Young candidate in ’11.
I like Brackman because he is an NCSU alumni, but he seems to be developing slowly. I don’t see him in the rotation in ’12…hope I’m wrong, though.
I still think Joba deserves a real shot to start. They have yanked him around waaaay too much.
Great piece… keep up the good work!
@Lumpee – thanks for reading. Lee’s back is worrisome, but I’m more worried about CC’s workload. His frame isn’t the type that ages gracefully and he has piled up a ton of innings since ’05. I think both Brackman and Betances will be in the hunt in 2012. What worries me the most about that situation is I can see the losed of that battle turning into the next Joba and getting yanked in and out of the rotation, permanently screwing him up.
Where on earth did you come up with a 5 year 130 million dollar contract for Cliff Lee? That would average 26 million dollars a year, and is way too much for a guy who was barely over .500 each of the last 2 years! 12-9 and 14-13 don’t exactly scream “pay him more than Sabathia!”
Are you aware that Clif Lee’s career ERA at Fenway Park is 5.79? The last time we got a very good pitcher that had trouble with the Red Sox, he lasted a NY minute! Remember Contreras? He had great stuff…when he wasn’t facing Boston. Lee struggles at Fenway, which is why Boston isn’t persuing him! Cliff will want 7 years, and probably 154 million, making it only 22 million a year average (26 is way too high) and even that seems high to me.
Now I am not saying that we don’t need pitching, because we do. I am simply saying that I certainly wouldn’t spend 26 million a year on Lee. We would be better off making a deal and bringing in Greinke from Kansas City, instead of investing a hundred and fifty million dollars on someone who is 32 years old and has trouble against Boston.