Zell's Pinstriped Blog, A New York Yankees Fan Blog

I read this today from Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York:

“Chamberlain’s role as the eighth-inning man and, quite possibly, his Yankees future are on the clock. The Yankees will not let Chamberlain’s inconsistency prevent them from making the playoffs or winning a championship.”

That’s quite a statement and makes it sound as if Joba Chamberlain is on the trading block. Regardless of his inconsistency this year, I find it a tad bit hard to believe the Yankees will give up on him this quickly. After all, he’s only 24 – and unlike most guys his age, he’s actually logged more innings and appearances at the major league level than he has in the minors. (He’s made 132 major league appearances for 319 innings vs. 18 appearances for 88 innings in the minors). What we’ve witnessed in the Bronx is the maturation of a thrower into a pitcher at the major league level. This is not something that lends itself easily to New York. Folks in Kansas City or Pittsburgh are accustomed to seeing young pitchers get walloped on a daily basis. Yankee fans haven’t seen this type of spectacle since Al Leiter‘s arrival in 1987.

This isn’t to say that Joba has done a spectacular job in the 8^th inning role he was handed. He hasn’t. But I would be much more worried if there weren’t signs of progress. There are. His K/9 is back up to 9.6; the HR/9 is back down to 0.5. Both of those numbers are actually pretty comparable to his 2008 season, which leads me to believe that putting him back in the bullpen has helped correct some of the issues that came to the fore last year (fewer strikeouts, more nibbling, more walks, more pitching from behind). The one area he hasn’t made progress in is hits allowed, which has ballooned to 10.1 per 9 innings. But even that isn’t indicative of what Joba is doing (or not doing): his BAbip (that is, the batting average on balls actually put in play) is a respectable .280. So why the seeming unending trail of blown games?

When Joba has been bad, he’s been spectacularly bad: in 13 of his appearances this year, the opposing team has lit him up for a .700 OPSa or better – which means in 1/3 of his appearances, Joba has basically imploded, allowing opposing batters to rip him hard. In those appearances, Joba has pitched to a 1.305 OPSa. That’s a great number if you’re an outfielder, not so much if you’re a pitcher. But in his other 26 appearances, Joba has held hitters to a highly respectable .326 OPSa. (By comparison, Mariano Rivera‘s OPSa this season is .397). In case you’re wondering, OPSa is the combined on-base and slugging average against a pitcher – a great way to measure if a pitcher is getting guys out, pitching into bad luck or just plain getting hammered. When your OPSa is sub .400, it means that not only aren’t opposing hitters getting on base, they aren’t exactly killing the ball when they do. When its north of .700, the fans in the bleachers better have brought along their gloves.

So, the key to the second half may simply be getting a 24 year old kid with a history of mental lapses to concentrate. He has demonstrated that he has the talent and ability to do the job and only lacks the consistency. I wouldn’t bet against him finding some of that consistency in the second half of this season. I certainly wouldn’t want to see Joba traded away for another tired retread, a la Octavio Dotel or {shudder} Kyle Farnsworth.