The 2011 Yankees work out during Spring Training
It’s that time of year. Spring training games are underway and baseball fans everywhere are having heated discussions about who will finish where. It’s kind of silly, really. As any Yankee fan can tell you, “You can’t predict baseball.” Still, we make the effort – never mind that mid-season injuries, trades and call-ups always alter the picture. Add in the players who have break-out years (seriously, who thought Jose Bautista would slug 54 homers in 2010?) or unexpectedly terrible ones (think Carlos Lee), and predicting anything this time of year becomes an exercise in futility. But it is a fun exercise, so here I go.
I’ll start by posting the expected finish of team, including record. How did I come to this? I ran 100 season simulations, based on a program I originally wrote for picking football games. Of course, this assumes I’ve correctly guessed every team’s roster on Opening Day and that nobody suffers a significant injury. It’s worked well for me in picking the NFL (as those of you who followed my picks on Twitter last year probably know), but this is the first time I’ve ever tried it in baseball. By the way, the division names double as links, you can hit them to get to a more in-depth prognostication.
- New York Yankees, 105-57 0 GB
- Boston Red Sox, 105-57 0 GB
- Tampa Bay Rays 95-67 10 GB
- Baltimore Orioles 94-68 11 GB
- Toronto Blue Jays 67-95 38 GB
- Minnesota Twins 87-75 0 GB
- Chicago White Sox 84-78 3 GB
- Detroit Tigers 71-91 16 GB
- Kansas City Royals 55-97 32 GB
- Cleveland Indians 45-107 42 GB
- Oakland A’s 97-95 0 GB
- Texas Rangers 85-77 12 GB
- Anaheim Angels 83-79 14 GB
- Seattle Mariners 64-98 33 GB
Yes, the AL East is that good. And yes, Cleveland is that bad.
Season’s biggest surprise: The Oriole starting rotation. I know, you probably think I lost my mind. But the O’s may have the best stable of young arms in the league, with Jake Arrieta (25), Brian Matusz (24), Brad Bergesen (25) and Chris Tillman(23). Add in a resurgent Justin Duchscherer and the steady Jeremy Guthrie, and that’s a lot of promise.
Season’s biggest bust: Texas. They’re really going to miss not re-signing Cliff Lee. Not to mention the whole Michael Young saga is a great case study in how to blow up team chemistry.
MVP candidate: Robinson Cano. If you thought last year was special, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
CY Young Candidate: Since this award seems given to somebody from a losing team lately, I’ll stay with the trend. Here’s a vote for Joakim Soria.
As always, I look forward to your feedback. And…PLAY BALL!!!
Ray Rothfeldt
M. B. Rozell
Kevin Rozell
I will take 105 wins this year.
I don’t mind Jeter in the 2 hole, provided he gets that ground ball percentage back under 60% and his BABip back over .320. Otherwise, it’s time for Cap to get used to hitting at the bottom of the order. (You can check out his advanced metrics here:)
Me, too. This should be a great season!
You really think they will give the Cy Young to a reliever? Heck, Mo couldn’t get one, why would Soria?
Unfortunately, Geo, Yankee pitchers have to do something earth-shattering to even sniff a Cy Young. The writers hate giving Yankees any kind of post-season awards.
I would love those predictions to come true. 105 wins? Better than ’09? Unfortunately, I don’t think this team is better as the 2009 version, so I don’t think 105 wins is realistic. For the Yanks, or ‘Sox. I think the Yanks will win 97 games and the division, by one game over the Red Sox.
It’s not just about how good the Yankees are, but also how poor the level of talent being fielded by other teams. Think of it this way: were the 1951 Indians or 2001 Mariners better than the 1927 Yankees? Not even close, but those teams won more games.
I don’t see the Yankees winning 100+ games. Your starting rotation is questionable. In my opinion, the Redsox run away with the East. The Rays finish a distant third and Baltimore wont win 90+ games… They’re better but not that much.
I hope your wrong about the Indians. Though, it’s a huge season for Laporta and Brantley to prove themselves. We improved at catcher (Carlos Santana) and we improved at second base (Orlando is a stopgap until Kipnis is deemed ready). Third base will ultimately be Lonnie Chisenhall’s in the near future.
Our pitching improved in the second half last season (not that it means much). Masterson has a year under his belt in the rotation, Fausto needs another good year, Carlos Carrasco will have his tough times, but we look for him to be a top to middle of the rotation starter in the future. And we have a few pitcher on the way: Alex White, Drew Pomeranz (in 2012), Josh Judy (Pen), Nick Hagadone, Jason Knapp (two years) etc.
Of course, not all of them will pan out, but the future is bright. Nice Blog.
Oh, I like the Jays rotation, so I expect them to finish higher then the O’s.